Why At-home 3D is a Long Way Off – If It Hits At All

I’m usually one to get on the bandwagon, and yes, I loved Avatar in 3D. From IMAX to regular theaters to…at home is the natural next step in the progression. ESPN announced earlier this month that it would launch a 3D network in the coming year. Disney’s on board. Sony’s on board. LG is launching a new line of 3D televisions in 2010. With names like that, do consumers really have any choice? Keeping in line with my identification as a bandwagoner, I would not-so-boldy predict that just as home television viewing transitioned to HD over the past few years, 3D networks will be the next in line, and in 5 short years, we won’t be viewing anything not in 3D.

Not this time.

I see the pull and the “coolness” factor is absolutely present. For advertisers, what an opportunity to create a much more engaging experience for our target audiences. We’re not extending outside the sense of sight, but we’re getting a lot closer to touch. This is significant. But I believe we’re going to need to find another way to do it.

4 Reasons why at-home 3D viewing is a long way off:

1. Peripheral distraction. 3D experiences in IMAX and even ordinary movie theaters work because it immerses the viewer in the experience. This is fairly obvious but worth noting. If you’ve got a 7-footer sitting in the seat right in front of you, it can ruin the entire experience. If the screen was half the size and your peripheral vision allowed you to see a significant amount on either side of the screen, the experience is compromised. Why do you think IMAX screens are so stinkin’ huge? Drop a 42-50″ screen on a wall, 10-20′ from the viewer and you’ve got all kinds of problems. Is it even worth trying to provide a 3D experience with all of the distraction your peripheral vision will catch? For sports viewing, movies, Discovery channel, whatever, this would actually seem a bit corny.

2. Viewing Angles. Again, the result of most of us not having a 20′ projection media room in our homes means that you’ll have to position yourself directly in front of your television to avoid distorting the experience. Remember early flatscreen technology that prevented viewership from a 45 degree angle? Well, we fixed that, but what are we going to do if 3D is the next big thing?

3. Glasses. Call this a gut instinct, but I don’t think people will want to have to wear glasses at home to watch tv. Will we just have a set of glasses for everyone in the household right next to the remotes? No more multi-tasking. Unless you want to fold laundry and work on your work laptop with vision distorting glasses, you’re either watching tv and nothing else, or you’re not watching at all. This is actually a step backwards.

4. Money. Along with any other tech advancement, the pricing will start high and decrease. The current economy certainly isn’t very conducive to a new expensive technology, but on top of that, who wants to buy a special cable box, a new tv, glasses and upgraded cable? Not this guy.

I get it. This is (relatively) new technology with a lot of momentum and chatter. I’d love to jump on the bandwagon, but a combination of rational thought and personal intuition seem to stack the cards in the other direction. But this is much more fun as a two-way conversation than a list. Thoughts?

I Invented A Flying Coffee-Maker. Now What?

I’m all hooked up and ready to go on Google Wave. I downloaded Sidewiki. I saw the iPhone spot and downloaded Bump. It’s ego-boosting to be out on the edge with all of my new toys that my clients and colleagues are just starting to hear about and hopefully hearing from me.

And if I want to get even closer to the edge, I’m going to start investing heavy amounts of time and energy to developing my own idea. Wouldn’t it be awesome if I could use my webcam to not only display my unshaven face in real-time but also some crazy 3d animation on top of it? Cool, no doubt.

I like cool. I’d say the majority of us do. But what now?

I don’t have to tell you this, but more than ever, we have the ability to reach the masses with our messages, stories and our ideas. We have a brand new sandbox and close to an even playing field with the Apples and Googles to innovate and change the world (see crowdsourcing, app stores, social media). More of us than ever are dedicating our lives to inventing and building a flying coffee maker. And more of us than ever are finding ourselves pridefully approaching the edge by purchasing our flying coffee makers and showing them off to our friends. There are thousands, probably millions, of flying coffee makers already on the market and probably millions more to come.

Remember how much you used to make fun of the useless products in the AirMall magazine? They were intriguing and oftentimes left you amazed that we (humans) even had that capability now…but your rational brain quickly turned on and recognized the lack of benefit. Ever wonder what happened to Sharper Image? They briefly sustained their brand on the “ooooh”s and “ahhhh”s but weren’t selling anything. How many times did you swing in the store as you were strolling through the mall just to try out the new massage chair and then walk right out?

The new sandbox is starting to get crowded, and the reality is, we’re right in the middle of an AirMall magazine or Sharper Image store in the mall without even realizing it. The curve is going to start trending downward once we realize that Sidewiki and Wave are never going to catch on. They’re cool. They’re not useful. I’m no prophet, but my gut tells me AR falls squarely into this same category.

Here’s the application:
Many of us have been spending far too much time trying to develop the next big thing and not nearly enough time optimizing the useful tools we already have. Now, I don’t want true innovators to go anywhere. Keep doing what you’re doing. But some of us are pioneers and some of us are settlers. We need both. Right now, far too many settlers think they’re pioneers. If you’re a settler, that’s a GOOD thing. Leave the flying coffee maker in your brain. Pick up the useful tools that the great innovators/pioneers of our generation and previous generations have developed and figure out how to best optimize them to tell your brand’s or your client’s story.

It’s quite possible, and I would even say probable, that the great innovation that changed the world was e-mail – or an automatic coffee-maker. Save this post if I’m wrong, but I think Google Wave is just an attempt to make it fly.